Laval Rocket at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Laval Rocket

1:4

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

LAVMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

64%36%

xG: 2.62.3
High danger: 42
Chances: 88
Shots: 3731

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 46% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal31

8Scoring chances8

4High-danger chances2

2.56Expected goals2.32

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–11	1–2	1–1	0.5–0.8
2nd	13–12	2–4	1–1	0.8–1.1
3rd	14–8	5–2	2–0	1.3–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	3	10:50 of the 3rd	9:10	9:10	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 36
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.56
GSAx: +1.56

Jacob Fowler

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.32
GSAx: -1.68

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:32Brayden Yager (0–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Jacob Fowler
1st 5:43Penalty
1st 5:43Penalty
1st 13:42Kevin Conley (0–2)low · 49 ft · beat Jacob Fowler
2nd 5:37Penalty
2nd 11:18Penalty
2nd 12:52Joshua Roy (1–2)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 15:01Walker Duehr (1–3)medium · 8 ft · beat Jacob Fowler
2nd 15:22Penalty
3rd 2:03Penalty
3rd 10:50Danny Zhilkin (1–4)medium · 24 ft · beat Jacob Fowler
3rd 13:58Penalty