Grand Rapids Griffins at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Grand Rapids Griffins

4:3

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

GRTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

47%53%

xG: 2.83.3
High danger: 33
Chances: 97
Shots: 2835

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal35

9Scoring chances7

3High-danger chances3

2.84Expected goals3.28

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–14	3–3	1–2	0.6–1.4
2nd	12–7	2–1	0–0	1.0–0.5
3rd	10–14	4–3	2–1	1.2–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 32
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.28
GSAx: +0.28

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.84
GSAx: -1.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:47Eduards Tralmaks (1–0)low · 62 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 10:02Arttu Hyry (1–1)low · 21 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
1st 11:02Penalty
2nd 5:23Carter Mazur (2–1)low · 48 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 11:31Penalty
2nd 11:58Carter Mazur (3–1)5v4 · low · 47 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 14:50Penalty
3rd 2:37Matthew Seminoff (3–2)low · 46 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 5:41Antonio Stranges (3–3)low · 52 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 14:08Penalty
3rd 16:56Carter Mazur (4–3)grade A · rebound · 26 ft · beat Rémi Poirier