Syracuse Crunch at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Syracuse Crunch

5:2

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

SYRHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

88%12%

xG: 4.51.4
High danger: 83
Chances: 205
Shots: 3916

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal16

20Scoring chances5

8High-danger chances3

4.47Expected goals1.43

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–7	6–1	2–0	1.3–0.5
2nd	14–7	9–3	3–3	1.7–0.8
3rd	16–2	5–1	3–0	1.5–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 34
Allowed: 5
xGA: 4.47
GSAx: -0.53

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 14
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.43
GSAx: -0.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:19Penalty
1st 6:40Penalty
1st 11:42Penalty
2nd 0:28Ethen Frank (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
2nd 4:29Ethen Frank (0–2)low · 47 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
2nd 5:05Penalty
2nd 6:16Jakob Pelletier (1–2)5v4 · medium · 25 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 8:59Penalty
2nd 10:07Penalty
2nd 10:07Penalty
2nd 12:06Dominic James (2–2)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 12:35Penalty
3rd 3:12Penalty
3rd 3:12Penalty
3rd 9:30Charle-Édouard D’Astous (3–2)low · 34 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 9:48Penalty
3rd 9:48Penalty
3rd 9:48Penalty
3rd 9:48Penalty
3rd 10:53Jakob Pelletier (4–2)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 17:50Penalty
3rd 19:29Gabriel Szturc (5–2)empty net · low · 114 ft · beat Clay Stevenson