Springfield Thunderbirds at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Springfield Thunderbirds

1:5

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

SPRHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 2.23.4
High danger: 38
Chances: 914
Shots: 2331

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal31

9Scoring chances14

3High-danger chances8

2.18Expected goals3.40

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–12	1–6	0–3	0.3–1.2
2nd	13–4	6–0	3–0	1.4–0.2
3rd	5–15	2–8	0–5	0.5–2.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	2	13:06 of the 3rd	6:54	6:54	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 26
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.40
GSAx: -1.60

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 22
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.18
GSAx: +1.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:07Sheldon Rempal (0–1)low · 15 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
1st 19:17Patrick Thomas (0–2)high · 10 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
2nd 8:10Penalty
2nd 13:49Penalty
2nd 14:48Penalty
2nd 16:53Penalty
2nd 18:28Nikita Alexandrov (1–2)5v4 · high · 15 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 13:06Henrik Rybinski (1–3)high · 8 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 18:28Ilya Protas (1–4)empty net · high · 16 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 18:40Penalty
3rd 19:59Ryan Chesley (1–5)empty net · low · 92 ft · beat Georgii Romanov