Syracuse Crunch at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Syracuse Crunch

5:3

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

SYRBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

83%17%

xG: 4.42.0
High danger: 62
Chances: 145
Shots: 4024

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 41% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal24

14Scoring chances5

6High-danger chances2

4.42Expected goals2.04

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–10	4–3	0–1	0.8–0.9
2nd	17–6	4–2	3–1	1.6–0.6
3rd	14–8	6–0	3–0	2.0–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 35
Allowed: 5
xGA: 4.42
GSAx: -0.58

Ryan Fanti

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 21
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.04
GSAx: -0.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:41Dominic James (1–0)low · 36 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
1st 17:40Wyatt Bongiovanni (1–1)low · 30 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
2nd 2:16Penalty
2nd 12:16Tristan Allard (2–1)medium · 25 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 12:37Penalty
2nd 15:25Penalty
2nd 16:50Lucas Mercuri (3–1)4v5 · high · 24 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 18:33Penalty
2nd 18:33Penalty
3rd 6:54Cameron Crotty (3–2)low · 41 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
3rd 8:21Dylan Duke (4–2)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 10:14Penalty
3rd 14:29Boris Katchouk (5–2)high · backhand · 12 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 18:49Lassi Thomson (5–3)low · wrist · 49 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
3rd 19:47Penalty