Utica Comets at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Utica Comets

0:4

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

UTCWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 1.82.1
High danger: 44
Chances: 78
Shots: 2027

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal27

7Scoring chances8

4High-danger chances4

1.85Expected goals2.12

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–6	4–2	3–2	0.9–0.7
2nd	6–12	1–4	1–1	0.5–0.9
3rd	6–9	2–2	0–1	0.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jakub Málek

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.12
GSAx: -1.88

Maxim Pavlenko

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 20
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.85
GSAx: +1.85

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:08Penalty
1st 13:45Penalty
1st 15:06Atley Calvert (0–1)5v4 · high · backhand · 9 ft · beat Jakub Málek
1st 16:17Penalty
2nd 5:51Mathieu De St. Phalle (0–2)medium · backhand · 8 ft · beat Jakub Málek
2nd 6:58Penalty
2nd 13:06Sam Poulin (0–3)medium · wrist · 24 ft · beat Jakub Málek
3rd 17:23Tristan Broz (0–4)empty net · low · 103 ft · beat Jakub Málek