AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, December 10

Milwaukee Admirals at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Milwaukee Admirals
4:6
Final
Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

MILGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
82%18%
xG
3.21.9
High danger
91
Chances
127
Shots
2929

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
GR above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 65% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal29
12Scoring chances7
9High-danger chances1
3.15Expected goals1.87

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–94–04–01.3–0.4
2nd7–110–30–10.2–0.8
3rd11–98–45–01.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
29
Saves
23
Allowed
6
xGA
1.87
GSAx
-4.13
Sebastian Cossa
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
3.15
GSAx
-0.85

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:12Tyler Angle (0–1)low · snap · 18 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 5:26Penalty
  • 1st 5:26Penalty
  • 1st 6:48Jake Lucchini (1–1)high · wrist · rebound · 10 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 2nd 9:13Penalty
  • 2nd 17:54Penalty
  • 2nd 17:54Penalty
  • 2nd 18:40Sheldon Dries (1–2)high · 11 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 19:32Penalty
  • 3rd 0:52Erik Gustafsson (1–3)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 2:44Penalty
  • 3rd 2:44Isaac Ratcliffe (2–3)low · 34 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 3rd 3:16Oasiz Wiesblatt (3–3)5v4 · high · 6 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 3rd 6:26William Lagesson (3–4)low · rebound · 52 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 11:08Joakim Kemell (4–4)medium · 10 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
  • 3rd 13:30Nolan Moyle (4–5)medium · 16 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 19:26John Leonard (4–6)empty net · low · 131 ft · beat Matthew Murray