Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

5:1

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

WBSCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

89%11%

xG: 4.01.7
High danger: 81
Chances: 186
Shots: 3222

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal22

18Scoring chances6

8High-danger chances1

4.01Expected goals1.72

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–7	10–2	4–0	2.2–0.5
2nd	9–6	4–0	2–0	0.9–0.4
3rd	8–9	4–4	2–1	0.9–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	3	8:13 of the 3rd	11:47	11:47	+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 27
Allowed: 5
xGA: 4.01
GSAx: -0.99

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.72
GSAx: +0.72

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:23Penalty
1st 6:30Tristan Broz (1–0)high · 20 ft · beat Cooper Black
1st 9:56Penalty
1st 12:41Penalty
1st 12:41Penalty
1st 12:41Penalty
1st 12:41Penalty
1st 12:49Penalty
1st 18:25Penalty
2nd 6:45Penalty
2nd 17:03Bokondji Imama (2–0)low · 40 ft · beat Cooper Black
2nd 17:35Penalty
2nd 17:35Penalty
2nd 18:06Penalty
3rd 8:13Gabe Klassen (3–0)high · 14 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 11:24Valtteri Puustinen (4–0)high · 24 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 11:46Ben Steeves (4–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 14:15Atley Calvert (5–1)medium · 25 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 16:39Penalty
3rd 19:56Penalty
3rd 19:56Penalty