Hartford Wolf Pack at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Hartford Wolf Pack

1:4

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

HFDWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

37%63%

xG: 2.12.2
High danger: 22
Chances: 811
Shots: 2721

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal21

8Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances2

2.09Expected goals2.25

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–11	3–6	0–2	0.6–1.3
2nd	10–6	4–2	2–0	1.0–0.4
3rd	9–4	1–3	0–0	0.4–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.09
GSAx: +1.09

Callum Tung

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 17
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: -1.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:40Penalty
1st 7:57Gabe Klassen (0–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 20 ft · beat Callum Tung
1st 10:20Tristan Broz (0–2)medium · wrist · 30 ft · beat Callum Tung
1st 12:15Penalty
1st 12:15Penalty
1st 12:15Penalty
1st 15:53Rafaël Harvey-Pinard (0–3)low · slap · 34 ft · beat Callum Tung
2nd 1:27Trey Fix-Wolansky (1–3)medium · backhand · 22 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 3:03Penalty
2nd 11:34Finn Harding (1–4)medium · tip · 18 ft · beat Callum Tung
2nd 14:05Penalty
2nd 19:02Penalty
3rd 4:05Penalty
3rd 4:05Penalty
3rd 12:38Penalty