San Diego Gulls at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

San Diego Gulls

2:5

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

SDABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

61%39%

xG: 3.92.7
High danger: 43
Chances: 1611
Shots: 3523

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal23

16Scoring chances11

4High-danger chances3

3.86Expected goals2.69

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	6–5	1–2	1.2–1.3
2nd	11–6	4–1	1–1	1.1–0.5
3rd	14–7	6–5	2–0	1.6–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jiří Patera

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.86
GSAx: +1.86

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 18
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.69
GSAx: -2.31

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:34Guillaume Brisebois (0–1)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Calle Clang
1st 3:07Penalty
1st 11:37Ben Berard (0–2)medium · 32 ft · beat Calle Clang
1st 14:16Penalty
1st 17:31Penalty
2nd 2:45Penalty
2nd 12:51Penalty
2nd 14:41Danila Klimovich (0–3)5v4 · low · 44 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 16:31Penalty
2nd 17:19Penalty
3rd 11:46Penalty
3rd 16:17Justin Bailey (1–3)high · rebound · 21 ft · beat Jiří Patera
3rd 17:02Judd Caulfield (2–3)medium · 19 ft · beat Jiří Patera
3rd 17:37Chase Wouters (2–4)medium · 17 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 18:09Ty Mueller (2–5)empty net · low · 29 ft · beat Calle Clang