Rochester Americans at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Rochester Americans

3:2

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

ROCSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

76%24%

xG: 1.51.6
High danger: 20
Chances: 65
Shots: 1819

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal19

6Scoring chances5

2High-danger chances0

1.50Expected goals1.65

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–5	2–2	0–0	0.3–0.5
2nd	9–6	2–1	1–0	0.7–0.4
3rd	4–8	2–2	1–0	0.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 17
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.65
GSAx: -0.35

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 15
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.50
GSAx: -1.50

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:54Matthew Peca (0–1)low · 41 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 8:08Penalty
1st 9:03Olivier Nadeau (1–1)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 12:17Penalty
1st 12:17Penalty
2nd 7:52Olivier Nadeau (2–1)low · 34 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
2nd 11:03Jarred Tinordi (2–2)low · 23 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 9:21Penalty
3rd 11:41Christopher Douglas (3–2)low · 32 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
3rd 13:47Penalty
3rd 15:39Penalty
3rd 15:39Penalty
3rd 19:55Penalty