Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

1:7

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

LVSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

18%82%

xG: 2.13.4
High danger: 15
Chances: 713
Shots: 2535

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal35

7Scoring chances13

1High-danger chances5

2.10Expected goals3.42

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–13	2–3	0–0	0.7–1.0
2nd	8–10	2–5	1–2	0.8–1.1
3rd	9–12	3–5	0–3	0.7–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 21
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.39
GSAx: -2.61

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.09
GSAx: +1.09

Carson Bjarnason

Shots faced: 9
Saves: 7
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.03
GSAx: -0.97

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:51Akil Thomas (0–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
1st 16:20Penalty
1st 18:49Dylan Peterson (0–2)low · 26 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
2nd 0:43Michael Buchinger (0–3)low · 48 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
2nd 13:01Penalty
2nd 17:35Penalty
2nd 17:56Penalty
2nd 18:13Penalty
2nd 18:13Penalty
2nd 18:13Penalty
2nd 18:13Penalty
2nd 18:13Penalty
3rd 0:47Dillon Dube (0–4)medium · 21 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
3rd 2:02Noah Powell (1–4)medium · 28 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 2:54Dillon Dube (1–5)low · 49 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
3rd 5:50Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (1–6)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
3rd 6:22Akil Thomas (1–7)high · 18 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
3rd 8:42Penalty
3rd 8:42Penalty