AHLDashboard
‹ Thursday, May 14

Springfield Thunderbirds at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Springfield Thunderbirds
4:3
Final / OT
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

SPRWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
49%51%
xG
4.03.6
High danger
44
Chances
1414
Shots
4542

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
WBS above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

45Shots on goal42
14Scoring chances14
4High-danger chances4
4.02Expected goals3.61

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st4–141–50–10.3–1.2
2nd10–166–72–21.5–1.7
3rd20–86–12–11.9–0.6
OT11–41–10–00.4–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR30:00 of the 3rd20:006:36+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sergei Murashov
Shots faced
45
Saves
41
Allowed
4
xGA
4.02
GSAx
+0.02
Georgii Romanov
Shots faced
42
Saves
39
Allowed
3
xGA
3.61
GSAx
+0.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:58Penalty
  • 1st 8:42Goal (0–1)5v4 · medium · tip · 8 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 1st 12:24Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 0:16Tristan Broz (0–2)low · wrist · 12 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 2nd 2:56Penalty
  • 2nd 11:27Penalty
  • 2nd 16:33Penalty
  • 2nd 18:16Avery Hayes (0–3)5v4 · medium · wrist · 25 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 3rd 0:31Penalty
  • 3rd 0:55Hugh McGing (1–3)4v5 · low · slap · 34 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
  • 3rd 13:25Penalty
  • 3rd 16:36Dillon Dube (2–3)low · tip · 14 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
  • 3rd 18:10Dillon Dube (3–3)grade A · tip · rebound · 20 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
  • OT 13:44Akil Thomas (4–3)medium · snap · 6 ft · beat Sergei Murashov