Colorado Eagles at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Colorado Eagles

2:4

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

COLONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 2.33.0
High danger: 46
Chances: 109
Shots: 2729

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal29

10Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances6

2.34Expected goals2.96

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–10	4–4	0–2	0.9–1.1
2nd	9–10	4–4	3–3	0.9–1.2
3rd	7–9	2–1	1–1	0.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	2	12:06 of the 3rd	7:54	7:54	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Justus Annunen

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.87
GSAx: -0.13

David Rittich

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.34
GSAx: +0.34

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:25Penalty
1st 7:27Penalty
1st 14:55Penalty
1st 17:50Jacob Doty (0–1)medium · 5 ft · beat Justus Annunen
2nd 9:14Jaret Anderson-Dolan (0–2)grade A · 11 ft · beat Justus Annunen
3rd 2:14Penalty
3rd 9:01Penalty
3rd 9:35Oskar Olausson (1–2)5v4 · medium · 34 ft · beat David Rittich
3rd 10:21Samuel Fagemo (1–3)low · 51 ft · beat Justus Annunen
3rd 13:35Penalty
3rd 18:22Jaret Anderson-Dolan (1–4)empty net · low · 27 ft
3rd 19:06Penalty
3rd 19:07Ivan Ivan (2–4)low · 17 ft · beat David Rittich