Goaltending
2025-26 · 70 goaltenders past 400 shots · league 89.9% on 64,925 shots
The AHL publishes save percentage, which is a fact about the shots a goaltender happened to face. Everything here is against what those shots were worth — the same expected-goals model the rest of the site runs on, with empty nets excluded because there is nobody in them to credit. The board below goes further and shrinks each rating toward average by what the sample can support, then draws the doubt that is left. Goaltending is the least repeatable thing in hockey (finding 06), so a number without an interval on it is the wrong number.
- 89.9%league save percentageon 64,925 shots, empty nets out
- 90.3%what an average goalie would have postedthe model’s read on the same shots
- 0.097expected goals per shot faced6,556 actually went in
The talent board
Career goals saved above expected per shot, shrunk toward average by a prior worth 1,550 shots — every season in the database, not just this one, because one season is not enough to separate goaltenders. Shown in goals per thirty shots, which is about a night’s work.
- 1Connor IngramBAK+0.284,865
- 2Michael DiPietroPRO+0.275,567
- 3Michal PostavaGR+0.25826
- 4Pyotr KochetkovCHI+0.231,429
- 5Joel BlomqvistWBS+0.222,625
- 6Cayden PrimeauCHI+0.226,694
- 7Trent MinerCOL+0.213,285
- 8Sergei MurashovWBS+0.211,964
- 9Carl LindbomHSK+0.202,236
- 10Connor UngarBAK+0.17426
- 11Devon LeviROC+0.163,994
- 12Jacob FowlerLAV+0.14961
- 13Calvin PickardBAK+0.134,967
- 14Nikke KokkoCV+0.132,342
- 15Rémi PoirierTEX+0.114,553
- 16Erik PortilloONT+0.112,846
Dot is the rating, bar is the 95% interval, goals per 30 shots. The right-hand figure is career shots faced — the reason one bar is narrower than another.
2025-26, by goals saved above expected
| Goaltender | Club | GP | SA | SV% | xSV% | dSV% | GSAx | GSAx/60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael DiPietro | PRO | 45 | 1202 | 93.0% | 90.8% | 2.17% | 26.03 | 0.59 |
| Carl Lindbom | HSK | 35 | 994 | 92.6% | 90.5% | 2.10% | 20.83 | 0.61 |
| Michal Postava | GR | 25 | 633 | 93.7% | 90.5% | 3.16% | 20.00 | 0.86 |
| Cayden Primeau | CHI | 39 | 1127 | 91.6% | 90.1% | 1.48% | 16.70 | 0.42 |
| Sergei Murashov | WBS | 38 | 980 | 91.9% | 90.5% | 1.48% | 14.55 | 0.41 |
| Jacob Fowler | LAV | 27 | 717 | 91.6% | 89.8% | 1.86% | 13.31 | 0.49 |
| Connor Ungar | BAK | 13 | 426 | 92.3% | 89.6% | 2.70% | 11.49 | 0.87 |
| Rémi Poirier | TEX | 52 | 1493 | 91.2% | 90.6% | 0.64% | 9.54 | 0.19 |
| Matt Tomkins | BAK | 42 | 1274 | 90.4% | 89.8% | 0.61% | 7.74 | 0.19 |
| Joel Blomqvist | WBS | 26 | 700 | 91.3% | 90.3% | 1.01% | 7.08 | 0.28 |
| Erik Portillo | ONT | 30 | 764 | 90.7% | 89.8% | 0.92% | 7.01 | 0.24 |
| Clay Stevenson | HER | 37 | 1038 | 91.2% | 90.6% | 0.67% | 6.93 | 0.20 |
| Simon Zajicek | PRO | 21 | 578 | 91.5% | 90.5% | 1.04% | 6.01 | 0.30 |
| Cooper Black | CLT | 42 | 1058 | 90.3% | 89.8% | 0.43% | 4.57 | 0.11 |
dSV% is save percentage minus what the model expected on the same shots, so it is the same argument as GSAx per shot in a unit goaltenders already read. A season of it repeats at r = 0.29 — do not mistake the order of this table for the order of the talent board.
Rebound control
The share of saves that handed the shooting club another attempt within three seconds — and the same figure on high-danger chances, where the second shot is the one that goes in. Ranked on the high-danger split, which separates goaltenders the overall rate does not.
| Goaltender | HD saves | HD leak | All saves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Murashov | 94 | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Dylan Garand | 96 | 5.2% | 4.5% |
| Marcus Högberg | 91 | 5.5% | 4.9% |
| Joel Blomqvist | 72 | 5.6% | 3.3% |
| Drew Commesso | 105 | 5.7% | 4.0% |
| Michael DiPietro | 120 | 5.8% | 4.9% |
| Laurent Brossoit | 102 | 6.9% | 5.6% |
| Calle Clang | 85 | 7.1% | 4.4% |
Read this one loosely. A season gives a goaltender about a hundred charted high-danger saves, and a rate off a hundred events repeats year over year at r = 0.03 — which is to say not at all.
Where the saves are made
Save rate by the danger of the shot. Low-danger is the diagnostic one: everybody stops those, so a goaltender below the field there is letting in the shots he is supposed to have.
| Goaltender | HD | MD | LD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michal Postava | 85.0% | 91.8% | 96.1% |
| Jacob Fowler | 83.6% | 84.3% | 95.4% |
| Nikita Tolopilo | 83.1% | 76.1% | 93.9% |
| Ville Husso | 83.1% | 88.9% | 92.2% |
| Carl Lindbom | 83.1% | 86.7% | 96.0% |
| Connor Ungar | 83.1% | 90.0% | 95.0% |
| Sebastian Cossa | 81.9% | 84.9% | 94.5% |
| Simon Zajicek | 81.1% | 85.8% | 95.0% |