Glossary

What the numbers mean · 125 metrics computed for 2025-26, 34 of them built here

Nothing on this site is a number you are expected to take on trust. Each of these says what it measures, what it deliberately leaves out, and where it is weak — because a statistic nobody else publishes has to carry its own explanation.

Expected goalsxG

What an average shot from that spot, in that situation, has historically been worth. A gradient-boosted model over every AHL shot on file reads distance, angle, what happened in the seconds before, the score, the strength and who is shooting, and returns the probability the puck goes in. Two goals of xG means the chances a club generated would beat an average goaltender twice. Shots at an empty net are scored at zero and excluded from the fit — nobody has to beat a goaltender who is not there, and leaving them in makes every trailing club look dangerous.

Deserve to winDTW

Who earned the game, from chance quality alone: expected goals, then high-danger chances, scoring chances, attempts and shots, weighted and stretched so a real edge is visible. Goals are deliberately left out — the meter is meant to be able to disagree with the scoreboard, and that disagreement is the whole reason to show it. Goaltending is credited afterwards, so a side that was outchanced but had the better goaltender is not marked down for saves that were skill. On the game page it is the dashed caliper laid across the ice.

Win probability

A different question: who is going to win, from the score, the clock and the two clubs’ strength. Club strength is a rolling Elo carried between seasons, half of whose update comes from the shot margin rather than the result. A one-goal lead is worth little in the first period and nearly everything with two minutes left — not because the lead grew, but because the variance around it shrank. On the ice, the colour is win probability and the caliper is deserve-to-win; the gap between them is the interesting part.

Goals saved above expectedGSAx

Expected goals against, minus goals actually allowed. Positive means a goaltender stopped more than the shots he faced were worth. About a fifth of the spread in it is repeatable skill, so the talent board shrinks each rating toward average by a prior worth 1,550 shots and draws the interval that is left. A season of GSAx is a fact about a season; the shrunk career figure is the closest thing to a fact about the goaltender.

Danger gradesHD / MD / LD

Every located shot is graded high, medium or low danger from where it was taken and what came before it. High-danger is the slot and the second chances around it. The grades are a coarse view of the same information the expected-goals model uses continuously; they are here because “eleven high-danger chances” is a sentence people say and “2.4 expected goals” is not.

Rush, cycle and scramble

Where an attempt came from, read off the clock rather than the tape. A scramble is a second or later attempt within four seconds — the rebound and the mess after it. A rush is a first attempt with no own attempt in the previous twenty-five seconds. A cycle is sustained pressure, five to twenty-five seconds after the club’s own last attempt. A shots-only feed cannot see a zone entry, so these read the shape of a possession off its shots; they partition every attempt exactly once. See findings 04 and 05.

Score state

Whether a club was leading, level or trailing when something happened. A trailing club throws pucks at the net and a leading one sits back, so a team that spends the year in front looks worse by shot share than it deserves. Every club page splits its season three ways, against a league benchmark pro-rated onto that club’s own mix of margins. Regulation only — overtime is three-on-three and always starts level.

Empty-net goals

Thrown out of nearly everything here, and it changes more than it sounds. A puck rolled into an unguarded net converts at close to 100% and carries no expected goals, so counting them makes a leading club look like a finishing machine and the third period look like the period everyone suddenly learns to shoot. Take them out and both effects vanish.

Built for this site

Metrics marked new below are not official AHL statistics. They are derived here from the play-by-play — rebound leak rates, chain depth, deserve-to-win — and nobody else publishes them, which is both the point of the site and a reason to read them with more care than the ones the league keeps.

The catalog

Generated from the metric catalog in the database, and filtered to what actually computed for 2025-26 — a metric the AHL feed cannot fill is not listed here promising something the site cannot show. That is why there is no time on ice, no faceoffs and no hits: the league does not publish them, so this site does not have them.

Club 52

Season totals and rates for a club.

Cycle Goals Againstnew: Goals allowed off the cycle.
Cycle Goals Fornew: Goals from those.
Cycle Shots Againstnew: Cycle attempts allowed.
Cycle Shots Fornew: Attempts after sustained pressure, or first shots from distance or the wall.
Expected Goals AgainstxGA: Expected goals against.
Expected Goals ForxGF: Expected goals for.
Expected Goals For %xGF%: Team expected goal share. The best single predictor of future results.
Games PlayedGP: Games played.
Goal DifferentialDIFF: Goals for minus against.
Goals AgainstGA: Goals allowed.
Goals ForGF: Goals scored.
Goals For %GF%: Actual goal share.
High Danger Chance %HDCF%: High-danger share.
High Danger Chances AgainstHDCA: High-danger chances against.
High Danger Chances ForHDCF: High-danger chances for.
LossesL: Regulation losses.
Overtime LossesOTL: OT/SO losses.
PDO: Team PDO. Sustained deviation from 100 is usually goaltending or luck.
Penalty Kill %PK%: Penalty kill success.
PointsPTS: Standings points.
Points %PTS%: Points percentage. Comparable across leagues with different schedule lengths.
Power Play %PP%: Power play conversion.
Power Play Goals: Goals scored on the power play.
Power Play Opportunities: Power play chances.
Regulation + OT WinsROW: Wins excluding the shootout. First tiebreaker in most leagues.
Rush Goals Againstnew: Goals allowed off the rush.
Rush Goals Fornew: Goals from those.
Rush Share of Goalsnew: How much of a club's scoring comes off the rush.
Rush Shooting %new: Conversion off the rush.
Rush Shots Againstnew: Rush attempts allowed.
Rush Shots Fornew: First shot of a possession from inside 40ft in the middle lane.
Save %SV%: Team save percentage.
Scoring Chance %SCF%: Chance share.
Scoring Chances AgainstSCA: Scoring chances against.
Scoring Chances ForSCF: Scoring chances for.
Scramble Goals Againstnew: Goals allowed from those attempts.
Scramble Goals Fornew: Goals from those attempts.
Scramble Share of Goalsnew: How much of a club's offence comes from second chances.
Scramble Shooting %new: Conversion on second chances in front of the net.
Scramble Shots Againstnew: Second-and-later scramble attempts allowed.
Scramble Shots Fornew: Attempts that were the second or later shot of a scramble in front of the net.
Scramble xG Fornew: Expected goals from those attempts.
Shooting %SH%: Team shooting percentage.
Shorthanded Goals Against: Goals allowed while shorthanded.
Shots AgainstSA: Shots on goal against.
Shots ForSF: Shots on goal for.
Special Teams IndexSTI: PP% + PK%. Above 100 is good.
Team TOI: Total game seconds in this context.
Times Shorthanded: Times shorthanded.
WinsW: Wins.
xGA/60: Expected goals against per 60.
xGF/60: Expected goals for per 60.

Skater 35

Everything the feed fills for a shooter.

AssistsA: Total assists. Primary/secondary split is not published by the AHL.
Average Shot Distancenew: Mean distance in feet of every attempt taken.
Cycle Goalsnew: Goals off the cycle.
Cycle Shotsnew: Attempts after sustained pressure, or first shots from distance or the wall.
Expected Goals per Game: Chance quality generated per appearance.
Games PlayedGP: Games dressed and used.
GoalsG: Goals scored.
Goals Above ExpectedGAx: Finishing skill. Stabilizes slowly; needs multiple seasons.
Goals per Game: Goals per appearance.
High-Danger Goals: Goals from that ice.
High-Danger Sharenew: How much of a skater's volume comes from dangerous ice rather than the perimeter.
High-Danger Shooting %new: Conversion on the chances that were always going to decide games.
High-Danger Shots: Attempts from high-danger and grade-A ice.
Individual Expected GoalsixG: Sum of xG on this player's own shots.
Individual High Danger ChancesiHD: High-danger chances taken.
Individual Scoring ChancesiSC: Scoring chances taken.
Individual ShotsSOG: Shots on goal taken.
Low-Danger Goals: Goals from that ice.
Low-Danger Shots: Attempts from low-danger ice.
Medium-Danger Goals: Goals from that ice.
Medium-Danger Shots: Attempts from medium-danger ice.
Penalty MinutesPIM: Penalty minutes.
Plus/Minus+/-: Even-strength and shorthanded goal differential while on ice.
PointsP: Goals plus assists.
Points per Game: The honest rate stat for a league that does not publish time on ice.
Power Play GoalsPPG: Goals scored on the power play.
Rebound Goalsnew: Goals scored on a second attempt inside three seconds.
Rush Goalsnew: Goals off the rush.
Rush Share of Goalsnew: How much of a skater's scoring comes off the rush.
Rush Shotsnew: First shot of a possession from inside 40ft in the middle lane.
Scramble Goalsnew: Goals from those attempts -- the net-front, second-chance goals.
Scramble Shotsnew: Attempts that were second or later in a scramble.
Shooting %SH%: Individual shooting percentage.
Short-Handed GoalsSHG: Goals scored while shorthanded.
Shots per Game: Attempts per appearance.

Goaltender 38

The deepest set on the site.

Delta Save %dSV%: Save percentage above expected.
Expected Goals AgainstxGA: Sum of xG on shots faced. The baseline everything else is measured against.
Expected Save %xSV%: What an average goalie would have posted on these shots.
Goalie Games PlayedGP: Appearances.
Goalie TOITOI: Seconds played.
Goals AgainstGA: Goals allowed.
Goals Against AverageGAA: Mostly a team statistic wearing a goalie's name.
Goals Saved Above ExpectedGSAx: The headline modern goalie stat.
GSAx/60: Rate form, comparable across workloads.
GSAx per ShotGSAx/Sh: Per-shot form.
GSAx Rate: Share of expected goals prevented. Scale-free -- this is the form the sightline metrics compare in.
High Danger Goals Against: High-danger goals allowed.
High-Danger Leak Ratenew: The same, on the chances where a rebound hurts most.
High-Danger Rebounds Leakednew: Of those, the ones that gave up a second chance.
High-Danger Saves Chartednew: Saves on high-danger and grade-A chances.
High Danger Shots AgainstHDSA: High-danger shots faced.
High Danger SV%HDSV%: Save rate on high-danger shots.
LossesL: Regulation losses.
Low Danger Goals Against: Low-danger goals allowed. Soft goals live here.
Low Danger Shots AgainstLDSA: Low-danger shots faced.
Low Danger SV%LDSV%: Save rate on low-danger shots. Weak here means soft goals.
Medium Danger Goals Against: Medium-danger goals allowed.
Medium Danger Shots AgainstMDSA: Medium-danger shots faced.
Medium Danger SV%MDSV%: Save rate on medium-danger shots.
Minutes per Appearance: Workload per outing.
Overtime LossesOTL: OT/SO losses.
Rebound Leak Ratenew: Share of saves that gave the shooting club another attempt within three seconds.
Rebound RateREB%: Share of saves that produced a rebound attempt.
Rebounds Allowed: Saves that produced a shot attempt within 3s.
Rebounds Leakednew: Saves followed within three seconds by another attempt from the same club.
Save %SV%: The traditional number. Says nothing about shot difficulty.
SavesSV: Saves made.
Saves Charted for Leaksnew: Saves where a following attempt could be observed.
Shots AgainstSA: Shots on goal faced.
Shots Against/60SA/60: Workload rate -- his environment, not his skill.
ShutoutsSO: Shutouts.
Win %: Win rate. A team stat.
WinsW: Wins.