Charlotte Checkers at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Charlotte Checkers

1:5

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

CLTSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

21%79%

xG: 2.53.6
High danger: 09
Chances: 1116
Shots: 2727

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal27

11Scoring chances16

0High-danger chances9

2.46Expected goals3.63

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–14	5–11	0–7	0.8–2.3
2nd	13–8	4–4	0–1	1.0–0.9
3rd	7–5	2–1	0–1	0.6–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	3	5:28 of the 3rd	14:32	14:32	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: +1.46

Spencer Knight

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.64
GSAx: -1.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:22Tanner Kaspick (0–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Spencer Knight
1st 6:37Penalty
1st 10:18Valtteri Pulli (0–2)medium · 18 ft · beat Spencer Knight
1st 13:55Penalty
1st 16:44Penalty
1st 18:28Penalty
2nd 2:54Penalty
2nd 2:54Penalty
2nd 5:26Ryan McAllister (1–2)low · 56 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 12:44Penalty
2nd 14:40Scott Sabourin (1–3)4v5 · low · 41 ft · beat Spencer Knight
3rd 5:28Thomas Bordeleau (1–4)low · 38 ft · beat Spencer Knight
3rd 10:07Penalty
3rd 14:39Penalty
3rd 16:09Justin Bailey (1–5)5v4 · low · 33 ft · beat Spencer Knight