Laval Rocket at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Laval Rocket

5:2

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

LAVMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

79%21%

xG: 3.62.4
High danger: 92
Chances: 148
Shots: 3128

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal28

14Scoring chances8

9High-danger chances2

3.61Expected goals2.42

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	6–5	3–1	1.6–1.1
2nd	11–5	4–1	3–1	1.1–0.4
3rd	10–13	4–2	3–0	1.0–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	3	1:44 of the 3rd	18:16	9:46	+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 26
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.61
GSAx: -1.39

Strauss Mann

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.41
GSAx: +0.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:23Xavier Simoneau (1–0)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 7:07Penalty
1st 14:33Penalty
1st 14:33Penalty
1st 14:33Penalty
1st 14:33Penalty
1st 14:33Penalty
1st 14:33Penalty
1st 15:31Penalty
1st 18:22Olivier Galipeau (2–0)medium · 25 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 2:20Penalty
2nd 7:51Penalty
2nd 9:53Penalty
2nd 10:07Wyatt Bongiovanni (2–1)5v4 · low · 22 ft · beat Strauss Mann
2nd 15:17Penalty
2nd 18:11Joshua Roy (3–1)high · 6 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 1:44Xavier Simoneau (4–1)high · 7 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 3:36Ashton Sautner (4–2)low · 53 ft · beat Strauss Mann
3rd 7:43Penalty
3rd 13:53Sean Farrell (5–2)medium · 18 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 16:20Penalty
3rd 18:56Penalty
3rd 19:12Penalty