AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, November 14

Bakersfield Condors at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Bakersfield Condors
3:6
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

BAKCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
52%48%
xG
3.84.0
High danger
67
Chances
1214
Shots
4227

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal27
12Scoring chances14
6High-danger chances7
3.75Expected goals3.97

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–122–60–30.5–1.5
2nd15–124–72–41.3–2.3
3rd19–36–14–02.0–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Oscar Dansk
Shots faced
42
Saves
39
Allowed
3
xGA
3.75
GSAx
+0.75
Jack Campbell
Shots faced
27
Saves
21
Allowed
6
xGA
3.97
GSAx
-2.03

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:26Dryden Hunt (0–1)medium · wrist · 10 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 1st 8:13Penalty
  • 1st 10:54Penalty
  • 1st 11:53Penalty
  • 1st 13:17Brady Lyle (0–2)5v4 · low · slap · 58 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 1st 18:22Penalty
  • 2nd 1:43Clark Bishop (0–3)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 2nd 2:12Penalty
  • 2nd 6:44Penalty
  • 2nd 6:53Rory Kerins (0–4)5v4 · grade A · snap · rebound · 13 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 2nd 13:52Penalty
  • 2nd 19:16Penalty
  • 3rd 3:16Penalty
  • 3rd 4:31Cam Dineen (1–4)5v4 · low · wrist · 38 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 3rd 5:41Ilya Nikolaev (1–5)low · snap · 30 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 3rd 8:02Penalty
  • 3rd 11:58Dino Kambeitz (2–5)low · backhand · 28 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 3rd 13:59Penalty
  • 3rd 13:59Penalty
  • 3rd 16:16Seth Griffith (3–5)high · 3 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 3rd 19:00Matt Coronato (3–6)empty net · low · 63 ft · beat Jack Campbell