Bakersfield Condors at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Bakersfield Condors

1:4

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

BAKCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

20%80%

xG: 1.93.6
High danger: 38
Chances: 514
Shots: 2041

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal41

5Scoring chances14

3High-danger chances8

1.93Expected goals3.64

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–16	4–4	2–1	1.0–1.0
2nd	7–11	1–2	1–1	0.8–0.8
3rd	6–14	0–8	0–6	0.1–1.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	3	9:56 of the 3rd	10:04	10:04	+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 41
Saves: 37
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.64
GSAx: -0.36

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.93
GSAx: +0.93

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 14:30Penalty
1st 16:15Jonathan Aspirot (0–1)5v4 · medium · snap · 19 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 17:52Penalty
2nd 2:30Penalty
2nd 8:23Penalty
2nd 10:24Colton Poolman (0–2)low · wrist · 68 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 11:22Cam Dineen (1–2)low · wrist · 28 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 17:41Penalty
3rd 3:50Ilya Solovyov (1–3)low · wrist · 47 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 9:56Emilio Pettersen (1–4)high · tip · 8 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 15:23Penalty
3rd 16:32Penalty