AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, November 17

Bridgeport Islanders at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Bridgeport Islanders
4:5
Final
Hershey Bears

The sheet

BRIHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
31%69%
xG
2.52.6
High danger
24
Chances
79
Shots
3528

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HER above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal28
7Scoring chances9
2High-danger chances4
2.50Expected goals2.64

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–142–30–10.6–1.1
2nd8–112–41–30.9–1.2
3rd18–33–21–01.0–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BRI−3−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BRI30:00 of the 3rd20:0012:39+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
35
Saves
31
Allowed
4
xGA
2.50
GSAx
-1.50
Jakub Skarek
Shots faced
28
Saves
23
Allowed
5
xGA
2.64
GSAx
-2.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:30Penalty
  • 1st 7:07Penalty
  • 1st 17:32Mike Vecchione (0–1)low · 38 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 1st 19:52Ryan Hofer (0–2)low · 27 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 2nd 2:55Karson Kuhlman (1–2)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 7:10Ivan Miroshnichenko (1–3)high · 10 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 2nd 11:46Bogdan Trineyev (1–4)high · 19 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 2nd 14:19Penalty
  • 3rd 1:22Ethen Frank (1–5)medium · 28 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 3rd 7:37Jeff Kubiak (2–5)low · 22 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 9:09Ruslan Iskhakov (3–5)medium · 28 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 12:34Otto Koivula (4–5)medium · 16 ft · beat Hunter Shepard