Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

3:2

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

LVLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

74%26%

xG: 4.32.4
High danger: 115
Chances: 168
Shots: 3226

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal26

16Scoring chances8

11High-danger chances5

4.32Expected goals2.43

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–11	2–1	1–0	0.4–0.6
2nd	12–1	4–0	1–0	1.1–0.1
3rd	16–14	10–7	9–5	2.8–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jakub Dobeš

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.32
GSAx: +1.32

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.43
GSAx: +0.43

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:38Penalty
1st 14:20Penalty
1st 17:28Penalty
2nd 6:11Penalty
2nd 7:58Penalty
2nd 10:19Penalty
2nd 13:24Penalty
2nd 15:19Tanner Laczynski (1–0)5v4 · medium · wrist · 30 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
3rd 2:59Olle Lycksell (2–0)grade A · wrist · rebound · 12 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
3rd 10:21Penalty
3rd 11:37Penalty
3rd 16:11Olle Lycksell (3–0)empty net · low · wrist · 107 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
3rd 16:22Penalty
3rd 16:22Penalty
3rd 16:22Penalty
3rd 16:22Penalty
3rd 16:22Penalty
3rd 17:28Brandon Gignac (3–1)5v4 · high · backhand · 10 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 19:54Riley Kidney (3–2)5v4 · high · wrist · 13 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 20:00Penalty