Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

4:2

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

WBSPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

69%31%

xG: 2.71.8
High danger: 53
Chances: 86
Shots: 2819

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal19

8Scoring chances6

5High-danger chances3

2.73Expected goals1.79

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–13	0–3	0–2	0.3–1.1
2nd	8–1	3–0	1–0	0.9–0.0
3rd	12–5	5–3	4–1	1.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.73
GSAx: -1.27

Alex Nedeljkovic

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 17
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.79
GSAx: -0.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:03Penalty
1st 14:13Penalty
1st 16:35Penalty
2nd 9:39Penalty
2nd 13:26Penalty
3rd 5:33Jagger Joshua (1–0)high · 9 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 11:29Penalty
3rd 12:08Ty Smith (2–0)5v4 · low · 56 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 12:23Penalty
3rd 12:23Penalty
3rd 13:56Valtteri Puustinen (3–0)high · 10 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 15:58Penalty
3rd 15:58Penalty
3rd 15:58Penalty
3rd 15:58Penalty
3rd 17:32Georgii Merkulov (3–1)grade A · 23 ft · beat Alex Nedeljkovic
3rd 17:54Justin Brazeau (3–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Alex Nedeljkovic
3rd 18:56Alex Nedeljkovic (4–2)empty net · low · 170 ft · beat Brandon Bussi