AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, November 17

Milwaukee Admirals at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Milwaukee Admirals
5:4
Final / OT
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MILRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
25%75%
xG
2.24.6
High danger
59
Chances
814
Shots
2437

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal37
8Scoring chances14
5High-danger chances9
2.18Expected goals4.59

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–86–23–01.2–0.4
2nd4–141–51–30.4–1.4
3rd8–151–71–60.5–2.8
OT1–00–00–00.1–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD118:40 of the 3rd1:201:08+0.031 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Troy Grosenick
Shots faced
37
Saves
33
Allowed
4
xGA
4.59
GSAx
+0.59
Drew Commesso
Shots faced
24
Saves
19
Allowed
5
xGA
2.18
GSAx
-2.82

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:58Penalty
  • 1st 7:44Penalty
  • 1st 8:34Joakim Kemell (1–0)5v4 · low · 54 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 8:57Penalty
  • 1st 10:41Zach L’Heureux (2–0)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 11:41Penalty
  • 2nd 2:02Penalty
  • 2nd 2:21Penalty
  • 2nd 9:29Antti Saarela (2–1)grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
  • 2nd 14:21Penalty
  • 2nd 15:06Penalty
  • 2nd 16:04Penalty
  • 2nd 16:04Anders Bjork (2–2)5v4 · high · 39 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
  • 2nd 19:02Penalty
  • 2nd 19:02Penalty
  • 3rd 2:37Denis Gurianov (3–2)low · 15 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 4:07Penalty
  • 3rd 4:07Penalty
  • 3rd 8:49Colton Dach (3–3)grade A · 8 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
  • 3rd 12:00Penalty
  • 3rd 18:40Roland McKeown (4–3)low · 35 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 19:48Joey Anderson (4–4)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
  • OT 2:20Cal O’Reilly (5–4)low · 14 ft · beat Drew Commesso