Grand Rapids Griffins at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Grand Rapids Griffins

2:4

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

GRTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 2.63.2
High danger: 57
Chances: 913
Shots: 2829

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal29

9Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances7

2.56Expected goals3.18

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–10	4–5	3–2	1.2–1.2
2nd	7–9	4–5	2–2	1.0–1.0
3rd	6–10	1–3	0–3	0.3–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	19:14	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.18
GSAx: -0.82

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.56
GSAx: +0.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:38Penalty
1st 4:46Penalty
1st 6:53Penalty
1st 14:48Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 0:47Tim Gettinger (1–0)low · 23 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 1:01Fredrik Karlström (1–1)high · 15 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 3:23Penalty
2nd 8:57Penalty
2nd 10:28Riley Damiani (1–2)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 12:05Michael Karow (1–3)low · 48 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 16:28Penalty
2nd 16:28Penalty
2nd 16:28Penalty
2nd 18:35Penalty
2nd 19:06Penalty
2nd 19:48Logan Stankoven (1–4)5v4 · high · 39 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 11:01Penalty
3rd 11:22Taro Hirose (2–4)5v4 · low · 46 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 14:36Penalty
3rd 14:36Penalty
3rd 14:36Penalty
3rd 15:22Penalty
3rd 18:06Penalty