AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, November 17

Calgary Wranglers at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Calgary Wranglers
5:4
Final / SO
Ontario Reign

The sheet

CGYONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
44%56%
xG
1.92.1
High danger
23
Chances
37
Shots
2024

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal24
3Scoring chances7
2High-danger chances3
1.87Expected goals2.15

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–61–21–00.4–0.5
2nd9–82–11–01.1–0.5
3rd5–80–30–20.3–0.9
OT1–20–10–10.1–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT116:56 of the 3rd3:041:47+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Wolf
Shots faced
24
Saves
20
Allowed
4
xGA
2.15
GSAx
-1.85
David Rittich
Shots faced
20
Saves
16
Allowed
4
xGA
1.87
GSAx
-2.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:37Penalty
  • 1st 10:55Akil Thomas (0–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 1st 12:15Penalty
  • 1st 13:53Rory Kerins (1–1)5v4 · high · 20 ft · beat David Rittich
  • 2nd 3:42Andre Lee (1–2)low · 33 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 2nd 10:32Cole Schwindt (2–2)grade A · 10 ft · beat David Rittich
  • 2nd 11:03Penalty
  • 3rd 4:40Penalty
  • 3rd 7:00Andre Lee (2–3)low · 24 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 3rd 8:09Ben Jones (3–3)low · 33 ft · beat David Rittich
  • 3rd 9:52Penalty
  • 3rd 13:06Penalty
  • 3rd 16:06Clark Bishop (4–3)low · 26 ft · beat David Rittich
  • 3rd 18:43Alex Turcotte (4–4)grade A · 11 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • OT 1:11Penalty