AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 18

Manitoba Moose at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Manitoba Moose
2:7
Final
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

MBTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
7%93%
xG
1.12.9
High danger
05
Chances
211
Shots
1830

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal30
2Scoring chances11
0High-danger chances5
1.05Expected goals2.92

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–102–20–10.7–0.8
2nd2–120–60–30.1–1.3
3rd7–80–30–10.3–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic
Shots faced
26
Saves
21
Allowed
5
xGA
2.60
GSAx
-2.40
Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
18
Saves
16
Allowed
2
xGA
1.05
GSAx
-0.95
Collin Delia
Shots faced
4
Saves
2
Allowed
2
xGA
0.32
GSAx
-1.68

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:54Logan Shaw (0–1)low · 45 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 1st 2:31Parker Ford (1–1)low · 51 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 7:02Alex Steeves (1–2)low · 35 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 1st 8:25Pontus Holmberg (1–3)low · 51 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 1st 12:57Penalty
  • 1st 13:28Penalty
  • 1st 19:53Nikita Chibrikov (2–3)medium · rebound · 30 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 2:05Logan Shaw (2–4)low · 34 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 15:42Alex Steeves (2–5)medium · 29 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 17:57Penalty
  • 3rd 0:11Penalty
  • 3rd 5:17Dmitry Ovchinnikov (2–6)low · 32 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 15:10Tommy Miller (2–7)low · 45 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 19:26Penalty