Syracuse Crunch at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Syracuse Crunch

2:5

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

SYRHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

14%86%

xG: 1.53.3
High danger: 27
Chances: 611
Shots: 2029

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal29

6Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances7

1.49Expected goals3.32

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–10	1–4	0–2	0.3–1.2
2nd	5–12	2–6	2–4	0.6–1.7
3rd	10–7	3–1	0–1	0.7–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hugo Alnefelt

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.32
GSAx: -1.68

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 18
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.49
GSAx: -0.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:40Karl Henriksson (0–1)grade A · 18 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
1st 9:35Penalty
1st 15:42Penalty
2nd 6:19Penalty
2nd 7:05Penalty
2nd 10:26Mitchell Chaffee (1–1)low · 50 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 10:55Brett Berard (1–2)high · 7 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
2nd 12:41Penalty
2nd 15:40Penalty
2nd 15:40Penalty
2nd 15:40Penalty
2nd 15:40Penalty
2nd 15:40Penalty
2nd 15:40Penalty
2nd 15:40Penalty
2nd 15:40Penalty
2nd 15:40Penalty
2nd 15:40Adam Edström (1–3)high · 15 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
2nd 17:01Alex Belzile (1–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
2nd 17:58Penalty
3rd 4:50Penalty
3rd 5:23Penalty
3rd 10:34Penalty
3rd 16:11Bobby Trivigno (1–5)empty net · low · 89 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
3rd 16:17Penalty
3rd 18:37Ilya Usau (2–5)medium · 18 ft · beat Louis Domingue
3rd 19:23Penalty