AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 18

Hershey Bears at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Hershey Bears
4:0
Final
Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

HERBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
82%18%
xG
2.91.6
High danger
41
Chances
115
Shots
3225

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BRI above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal25
11Scoring chances5
4High-danger chances1
2.88Expected goals1.59

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–83–20–10.5–0.6
2nd13–94–01–01.3–0.3
3rd13–84–33–01.1–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BRI−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BRI30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ken Appleby
Shots faced
32
Saves
28
Allowed
4
xGA
2.88
GSAx
-1.12
Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
25
Saves
25
Allowed
0
xGA
1.59
GSAx
+1.59

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:45Mike Vecchione (1–0)medium · 20 ft · beat Ken Appleby
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 6:39Ethen Frank (2–0)low · 70 ft · beat Ken Appleby
  • 2nd 10:12Penalty
  • 2nd 13:21Riley Sutter (3–0)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Ken Appleby
  • 2nd 18:27Penalty
  • 3rd 11:21Pierrick Dubé (4–0)high · 10 ft · beat Ken Appleby
  • 3rd 13:38Penalty