Chicago Wolves at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Chicago Wolves

5:1

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

CHIMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

52%48%

xG: 2.32.4
High danger: 53
Chances: 77
Shots: 2522

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal22

7Scoring chances7

5High-danger chances3

2.28Expected goals2.42

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–10	1–4	0–2	0.7–1.5
2nd	10–2	2–1	2–1	0.8–0.2
3rd	6–10	4–2	3–0	0.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 20
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.28
GSAx: -2.72

Keith Kinkaid

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.42
GSAx: +1.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:16Peter Abbandonato (1–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
1st 8:36Penalty
1st 13:55Penalty
1st 18:02Mark Jankowski (1–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
1st 19:46Cole Schneider (2–1)low · 46 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 7:01Max Comtois (3–1)high · 13 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 8:48Penalty
2nd 9:48Vasily Ponomarev (4–1)5v4 · high · 17 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 16:23Penalty
2nd 16:23Penalty
3rd 6:17Penalty
3rd 14:50Isaac Ratcliffe (5–1)high · 18 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov