Rockford IceHogs at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Rockford IceHogs

4:3

Final / SO

Iowa Wild

The sheet

RFDIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

44%56%

xG: 3.03.2
High danger: 88
Chances: 1013
Shots: 2828

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal28

10Scoring chances13

8High-danger chances8

3.03Expected goals3.19

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–6	2–2	2–2	0.5–0.6
2nd	17–6	7–3	5–2	2.1–0.7
3rd	4–12	1–4	1–1	0.3–0.9
OT	1–4	0–4	0–3	0.1–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:05	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.19
GSAx: +0.19

Zane McIntyre

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.03
GSAx: +0.03

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:41Penalty
1st 3:32Colton Dach (1–0)high · tip · 10 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
1st 5:42Penalty
1st 6:41Jujhar Khaira (1–1)4v5 · high · 10 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 17:07Penalty
2nd 1:37Penalty
2nd 7:43Penalty
2nd 10:19Penalty
2nd 10:19Penalty
2nd 11:35Colton Dach (2–1)low · 46 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
3rd 1:03Colton Dach (3–1)high · 14 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
3rd 1:26Pavel Novak (3–2)high · rebound · 8 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 13:10Penalty
3rd 18:01Adam Beckman (3–3)medium · 28 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber