Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

8:1

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

LVBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

81%19%

xG: 4.12.3
High danger: 61
Chances: 149
Shots: 4233

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal33

14Scoring chances9

6High-danger chances1

4.07Expected goals2.32

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–10	4–2	1–1	1.0–0.8
2nd	12–13	5–4	4–0	1.4–0.9
3rd	18–10	5–3	1–0	1.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Parker Gahagen

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.32
GSAx: +1.32

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 19
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: -2.54

Kevin Mandolese

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 15
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.62
GSAx: -1.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:14Penalty
1st 11:54Penalty
1st 19:02Tanner Laczynski (1–0)medium · 27 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 0:10Samu Tuomaala (2–0)low · 35 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 5:43Cooper Marody (3–0)high · 16 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 6:39Penalty
2nd 6:39Penalty
2nd 6:39Angus Crookshank (3–1)medium · 27 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
2nd 11:27Penalty
2nd 15:03Penalty
2nd 15:36Emil Andrae (4–1)5v4 · low · 49 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 17:28Tanner Laczynski (5–1)high · 10 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 3:11Penalty
3rd 11:19Penalty
3rd 11:57Ronnie Attard (6–1)5v4 · low · 37 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
3rd 15:05Wade Allison (7–1)medium · 19 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
3rd 17:10Ronnie Attard (8–1)low · 40 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
3rd 19:09Penalty
3rd 19:09Penalty