Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

2:1

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

WBSPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

69%31%

xG: 2.82.3
High danger: 51
Chances: 99
Shots: 2730

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal30

9Scoring chances9

5High-danger chances1

2.77Expected goals2.34

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	5–3	3–0	1.1–0.8
2nd	9–7	3–4	2–1	1.2–0.8
3rd	8–13	1–2	0–0	0.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.34
GSAx: +1.34

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.77
GSAx: +0.77

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:02Penalty
1st 3:02Penalty
1st 3:02Penalty
1st 3:02Penalty
1st 3:02Penalty
1st 3:02Penalty
1st 3:02Penalty
1st 6:08Alex Nylander (1–0)high · rebound · 8 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 7:05Reilly Walsh (1–1)low · 41 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
1st 7:36Penalty
1st 10:58Penalty
1st 14:21Penalty
1st 18:34Penalty
1st 19:18Penalty
2nd 9:14Penalty
2nd 11:50Justin Addamo (2–1)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 14:53Penalty
3rd 6:45Penalty
3rd 8:51Penalty
3rd 9:01Penalty
3rd 15:28Penalty