Grand Rapids Griffins at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Grand Rapids Griffins

4:7

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

GRTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

36%64%

xG: 3.63.9
High danger: 36
Chances: 1018
Shots: 4131

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

41Shots on goal31

10Scoring chances18

3High-danger chances6

3.64Expected goals3.87

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	21–10	6–6	3–1	2.1–1.2
2nd	6–11	0–7	0–4	0.4–1.6
3rd	14–10	4–5	0–1	1.2–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.004 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 41
Saves: 37
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.64
GSAx: -0.36

Michael Hutchinson

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 12
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.56
GSAx: -3.44

John Lethemon

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 12
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.31
GSAx: +0.31

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:35Penalty
1st 6:27Fredrik Karlström (0–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
1st 6:41Matěj Blümel (0–2)medium · 33 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
1st 8:08Penalty
1st 10:39Cross Hanas (1–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 11:22Jonatan Berggren (2–2)low · 50 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 15:53Penalty
1st 19:11Logan Stankoven (2–3)low · 47 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
2nd 1:08Mavrik Bourque (2–4)high · 14 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
2nd 6:05Penalty
2nd 9:41Penalty
2nd 10:42Penalty
2nd 11:26Matěj Blümel (2–5)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
2nd 11:55Penalty
2nd 11:55Antonio Stranges (2–6)5v4 · medium · 40 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
2nd 16:12Antonio Stranges (2–7)low · 32 ft · beat John Lethemon
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 3:18Penalty
3rd 3:55Amadeus Lombardi (3–7)5v4 · low · 61 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 12:01Penalty
3rd 15:18Tyler Spezia (4–7)medium · 19 ft · beat Rémi Poirier