AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 18

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Coachella Valley Firebirds
5:4
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

CVTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
58%42%
xG
3.12.6
High danger
43
Chances
1010
Shots
3030

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal30
10Scoring chances10
4High-danger chances3
3.09Expected goals2.62

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–81–41–00.9–0.7
2nd9–75–42–21.1–1.1
3rd13–154–21–11.1–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleš Stezka
Shots faced
30
Saves
26
Allowed
4
xGA
2.62
GSAx
-1.38
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
25
Saves
22
Allowed
3
xGA
2.78
GSAx
-0.22
Anson Thornton
Shots faced
2
Saves
0
Allowed
2
xGA
0.16
GSAx
-1.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:19Max McCormick (1–0)low · 32 ft · beat Anson Thornton
  • 1st 5:14Jacob Melanson (2–0)low · 34 ft · beat Anson Thornton
  • 1st 10:03Ryan McGregor (2–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 1st 11:25Cameron Hughes (3–1)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 16:25Max McCormick (4–1)low · 37 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 1:59Cameron Hebig (4–2)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 20 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 2nd 11:02Penalty
  • 2nd 13:51Penalty
  • 2nd 19:46Penalty
  • 2nd 19:53Dylan Guenther (4–3)5v4 · high · 22 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 3rd 12:02John Leonard (4–4)medium · 20 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 3rd 13:25Devin Shore (5–4)medium · 15 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 14:49Penalty
  • 3rd 17:09Penalty