Milwaukee Admirals at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Milwaukee Admirals

2:1

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

MILCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

57%43%

xG: 2.22.1
High danger: 43
Chances: 76
Shots: 2934

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal34

7Scoring chances6

4High-danger chances3

2.19Expected goals2.06

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–11	4–1	3–1	1.1–0.5
2nd	12–11	1–2	1–1	0.9–0.8
3rd	5–12	2–3	0–1	0.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Troy Grosenick

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 33
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.06
GSAx: +1.06

Adam Scheel

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.18
GSAx: +0.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:47Penalty
1st 7:47Penalty
1st 16:13Kevin Wall (1–0)low · 42 ft · beat Adam Scheel
1st 18:30Penalty
1st 19:38Tye Felhaber (2–0)5v4 · high · 27 ft · beat Adam Scheel
2nd 13:46Penalty
2nd 16:24Ryan Wagner (2–1)low · 37 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
3rd 0:20Penalty
3rd 0:20Penalty
3rd 15:56Penalty