Manitoba Moose at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Manitoba Moose

4:2

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

MBTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

51%49%

xG: 1.82.3
High danger: 32
Chances: 67
Shots: 2126

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal26

6Scoring chances7

3High-danger chances2

1.76Expected goals2.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–6	2–0	1–0	0.7–0.2
2nd	8–14	3–5	1–2	0.6–1.7
3rd	5–6	1–2	1–0	0.5–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.31
GSAx: +0.31

Keith Petruzzelli

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 17
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.76
GSAx: -2.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:34Nicholas Jones (1–0)low · 28 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
1st 13:38Brad Lambert (2–0)high · rebound · 13 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
1st 15:02Penalty
1st 18:20Penalty
1st 18:20Penalty
2nd 0:05Penalty
2nd 2:08Alex Steeves (2–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 6:22Penalty
2nd 7:34Penalty
2nd 12:08C.J. Suess (3–1)low · 48 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
2nd 13:35Penalty
2nd 13:35Penalty
2nd 16:18Kieffer Bellows (3–2)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 19:25Penalty
3rd 11:31Penalty
3rd 11:31Penalty
3rd 15:13Penalty
3rd 19:04Nikita Chibrikov (4–2)empty net · high · 14 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli