AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, November 19

Calgary Wranglers at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Calgary Wranglers
0:4
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

CGYONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
42%58%
xG
1.92.4
High danger
34
Chances
710
Shots
1924

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal24
7Scoring chances10
3High-danger chances4
1.89Expected goals2.44

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–81–41–00.4–0.8
2nd7–85–32–21.0–0.9
3rd7–81–30–20.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY38:35 of the 3rd11:2511:25+0.016 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Wolf
Shots faced
23
Saves
20
Allowed
3
xGA
2.44
GSAx
-0.56
Erik Portillo
Shots faced
19
Saves
19
Allowed
0
xGA
1.89
GSAx
+1.89

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:09Penalty
  • 1st 6:18Penalty
  • 1st 13:07Penalty
  • 1st 14:13Penalty
  • 1st 18:31Penalty
  • 2nd 4:15Penalty
  • 2nd 5:51Mikhail Maltsev (0–1)5v4 · medium · 23 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 2nd 8:45Brandt Clarke (0–2)low · 34 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 2nd 13:28Penalty
  • 2nd 15:51Penalty
  • 2nd 17:57Penalty
  • 2nd 19:40Penalty
  • 3rd 7:58Penalty
  • 3rd 8:26Penalty
  • 3rd 8:35Samuel Fagemo (0–3)5v4 · grade A · 30 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
  • 3rd 10:59Penalty
  • 3rd 10:59Penalty
  • 3rd 10:59Penalty
  • 3rd 11:20Penalty
  • 3rd 16:48Samuel Fagemo (0–4)empty net · low · 79 ft