AHLDashboard
‹ Monday, November 20

Cleveland Monsters at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Cleveland Monsters
3:1
Final
Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

CLECLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
18%82%
xG
1.42.7
High danger
12
Chances
38
Shots
1931

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CLT above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal31
3Scoring chances8
1High-danger chances2
1.35Expected goals2.69

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–100–30–10.5–0.9
2nd6–172–31–10.5–1.3
3rd6–41–20–00.4–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CLT−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CLT116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pavel Cajan
Shots faced
31
Saves
30
Allowed
1
xGA
2.69
GSAx
+1.69
Ludovic Waeber
Shots faced
19
Saves
16
Allowed
3
xGA
1.35
GSAx
-1.65

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:22Penalty
  • 1st 7:27Penalty
  • 1st 9:32Brendan Gaunce (1–0)low · 26 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber
  • 2nd 6:59Penalty
  • 2nd 15:44Penalty
  • 2nd 16:09Penalty
  • 2nd 17:04Mackie Samoskevich (1–1)low · 28 ft · beat Pavel Cajan
  • 2nd 19:18Penalty
  • 3rd 3:32Penalty
  • 3rd 3:32Penalty
  • 3rd 4:37Penalty
  • 3rd 7:23Penalty
  • 3rd 9:44Penalty
  • 3rd 10:27Penalty
  • 3rd 13:04Emil Bemström (2–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber
  • 3rd 18:44Emil Bemström (3–1)empty net · low · 53 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber