AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, November 21

Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Lehigh Valley Phantoms
2:1
Final
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

LVTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
65%35%
xG
3.72.8
High danger
84
Chances
1514
Shots
3425

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal25
15Scoring chances14
8High-danger chances4
3.73Expected goals2.82

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–75–43–11.3–0.7
2nd11–96–82–21.3–1.4
3rd11–94–23–11.0–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR212:08 of the 3rd7:525:35+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
34
Saves
32
Allowed
2
xGA
3.73
GSAx
+1.73
Cal Petersen
Shots faced
25
Saves
24
Allowed
1
xGA
2.82
GSAx
+1.82

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:43Penalty
  • 1st 5:43Penalty
  • 2nd 4:11Penalty
  • 2nd 5:19Penalty
  • 2nd 7:27Penalty
  • 2nd 10:49Penalty
  • 2nd 12:46Olle Lycksell (1–0)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 16:45Penalty
  • 2nd 17:18Penalty
  • 3rd 9:37Penalty
  • 3rd 11:47Garrett Wilson (2–0)low · 25 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 3rd 14:39Kieffer Bellows (2–1)low · 36 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 3rd 16:26Penalty