AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, November 22

Providence Bruins at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Providence Bruins
4:6
Final
Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

PROHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
38%62%
xG
2.53.6
High danger
36
Chances
1010
Shots
2835

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HFD above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal35
10Scoring chances10
3High-danger chances6
2.54Expected goals3.62

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–84–21–10.9–0.8
2nd11–103–11–00.8–0.7
3rd10–173–71–50.9–2.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

PRO0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
PRO119:16 of the 3rd0:440:44+0.015 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
35
Saves
29
Allowed
6
xGA
3.62
GSAx
-2.38
Dylan Garand
Shots faced
28
Saves
24
Allowed
4
xGA
2.54
GSAx
-1.46

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:30Marc McLaughlin (1–0)medium · 21 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 1st 1:19Penalty
  • 1st 3:15Penalty
  • 1st 8:15Penalty
  • 1st 19:57Karl Henriksson (1–1)low · 20 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 1:46Jonny Brodzinski (1–2)low · 23 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 3:58Luke Toporowski (2–2)low · 32 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 2nd 4:39Penalty
  • 2nd 10:43Penalty
  • 2nd 10:43Penalty
  • 2nd 14:53Curtis Hall (3–2)high · 11 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 2nd 15:33Joey Abate (4–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 2nd 17:25Penalty
  • 2nd 19:46Penalty
  • 3rd 7:16Penalty
  • 3rd 8:37Penalty
  • 3rd 8:51Alex Belzile (4–3)5v4 · high · 40 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 3rd 10:05Penalty
  • 3rd 12:15Brennan Othmann (4–4)high · 13 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 3rd 12:31Penalty
  • 3rd 16:49Penalty
  • 3rd 19:11Penalty
  • 3rd 19:16Alex Belzile (4–5)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 3rd 19:53Adam Edström (4–6)empty net · low · 140 ft · beat Michael DiPietro