Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

1:2

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

WBSHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 1.82.9
High danger: 25
Chances: 910
Shots: 2332

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal32

9Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances5

1.83Expected goals2.89

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	5–2	1–1	0.9–0.7
2nd	8–9	3–5	0–2	0.6–1.0
3rd	5–13	1–3	1–2	0.4–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.89
GSAx: +0.89

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 22
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.84
GSAx: +0.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:46Dylan McIlrath (0–1)low · 38 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
1st 10:37Rem Pitlick (1–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
1st 17:03Penalty
2nd 2:52Riley Sutter (1–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 4:26Penalty
2nd 11:17Penalty
3rd 10:36Penalty
3rd 16:22Penalty