Syracuse Crunch at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Syracuse Crunch

1:4

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

SYRUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

23%77%

xG: 1.73.3
High danger: 27
Chances: 615
Shots: 2629

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal29

6Scoring chances15

2High-danger chances7

1.75Expected goals3.25

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–13	1–5	1–3	0.4–1.3
2nd	11–11	3–7	0–4	0.8–1.5
3rd	9–5	2–3	1–0	0.6–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Källgren

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 25
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.75
GSAx: +0.75

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.55
GSAx: -0.45

Hugo Alnefelt

Shots faced: 7
Saves: 6
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.70
GSAx: -0.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:21Penalty
1st 8:20Timur Ibragimov (0–1)5v4 · medium · 25 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 15:18Penalty
2nd 0:43Penalty
2nd 2:47Penalty
2nd 6:18Penalty
2nd 6:26Shane Bowers (0–2)4v5 · grade A · 15 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
2nd 9:32Xavier Parent (0–3)high · 9 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
2nd 11:25Kyle Criscuolo (0–4)medium · 11 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
2nd 13:30Penalty
3rd 6:11Penalty
3rd 10:02Penalty
3rd 10:02Penalty
3rd 15:10Penalty
3rd 15:10Ilya Usau (1–4)medium · 13 ft · beat Erik Källgren