AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, November 22

Bridgeport Islanders at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Bridgeport Islanders
2:4
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

BRISPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
39%61%
xG
3.73.7
High danger
57
Chances
1716
Shots
3433

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal33
17Scoring chances16
5High-danger chances7
3.69Expected goals3.66

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–82–60–10.6–1.0
2nd14–178–64–31.7–1.7
3rd12–87–41–31.4–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BRI−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BRI212:08 of the 3rd7:527:52+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
34
Saves
32
Allowed
2
xGA
3.69
GSAx
+1.69
Jakub Skarek
Shots faced
33
Saves
29
Allowed
4
xGA
3.66
GSAx
-0.34

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 11:47Matthew Peca (0–1)low · 48 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 1st 12:47Penalty
  • 2nd 2:33Penalty
  • 2nd 3:17Penalty
  • 2nd 3:17Penalty
  • 2nd 13:46Matthew Peca (0–2)low · 10 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 2nd 15:31Otto Koivula (1–2)high · 8 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 16:08Hugh McGing (1–3)high · 7 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 2nd 17:12Jeff Kubiak (2–3)high · 9 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 4:36Penalty
  • 3rd 9:21Wyatt Kalynuk (2–4)low · 43 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 3rd 10:45Penalty