Iowa Wild at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Iowa Wild

1:3

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

IAMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 2.52.8
High danger: 52
Chances: 813
Shots: 2831

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal31

8Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances2

2.49Expected goals2.82

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	2–2	1–0	0.6–0.8
2nd	10–16	5–9	4–2	1.4–1.7
3rd	10–6	1–2	0–0	0.6–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.82
GSAx: -0.18

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.49
GSAx: +1.49

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:05Penalty
1st 19:53Penalty
2nd 2:54Penalty
2nd 2:54Penalty
2nd 3:24Fedor Svechkov (0–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
2nd 5:09Roland McKeown (0–2)low · rebound · 47 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
2nd 11:22Mark Jankowski (0–3)medium · 25 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
2nd 19:30Jujhar Khaira (1–3)high · 25 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 4:24Penalty
3rd 12:22Penalty
3rd 12:22Penalty
3rd 14:52Penalty