Hartford Wolf Pack at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Hartford Wolf Pack

4:2

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

HFDSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

31%69%

xG: 3.15.0
High danger: 510
Chances: 1320
Shots: 3641

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal41

13Scoring chances20

5High-danger chances10

3.15Expected goals5.01

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–13	4–4	2–3	0.9–1.3
2nd	12–16	6–8	2–4	1.2–2.2
3rd	12–12	3–8	1–3	1.0–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 41
Saves: 39
Allowed: 2
xGA: 5.01
GSAx: +3.01

Malcolm Subban

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 32
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.14
GSAx: -0.86

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:38Penalty
1st 4:45Penalty
1st 7:30Penalty
1st 16:33Penalty
2nd 3:03Penalty
2nd 5:06Penalty
2nd 6:00Riley Nash (1–0)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
2nd 6:31Penalty
2nd 10:17Hugh McGing (1–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Louis Domingue
3rd 1:19Brett Berard (2–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
3rd 2:34Penalty
3rd 4:33Penalty
3rd 8:43Penalty
3rd 10:29Joseph Duszak (2–2)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Louis Domingue
3rd 12:12Matt Rempe (3–2)high · 11 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
3rd 16:49Penalty
3rd 19:11Adam Edström (4–2)empty net · low · 48 ft · beat Malcolm Subban