Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

4:1

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

WBSCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 2.74.1
High danger: 47
Chances: 1117
Shots: 2545

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal45

11Scoring chances17

4High-danger chances7

2.72Expected goals4.13

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–14	2–7	0–2	0.5–1.4
2nd	12–12	7–4	3–2	1.6–0.9
3rd	7–19	2–6	1–3	0.7–1.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 45
Saves: 44
Allowed: 1
xGA: 4.13
GSAx: +3.13

Ludovic Waeber

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 18
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: +1.24

Evan Cormier

Shots faced: 6
Saves: 3
Allowed: 3
xGA: 0.47
GSAx: -2.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:53Penalty
1st 5:22Valtteri Puustinen (1–0)low · 35 ft · beat Evan Cormier
1st 10:22Joona Koppanen (2–0)medium · rebound · 38 ft · beat Evan Cormier
1st 12:06Raivis Ansons (3–0)medium · 16 ft · beat Evan Cormier
1st 14:42Penalty
1st 16:39Penalty
1st 16:39Penalty
2nd 12:44Penalty
2nd 13:49Penalty
2nd 15:10Penalty
2nd 15:10Penalty
2nd 15:28Jonathan Gruden (4–0)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Ludovic Waeber
3rd 1:32Penalty
3rd 5:17Penalty
3rd 5:17Penalty
3rd 5:17Penalty
3rd 5:17Penalty
3rd 8:12Penalty
3rd 10:15Santtu Kinnunen (4–1)grade A · 8 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist