Texas Stars at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Texas Stars

3:6

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

TEXCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

51%49%

xG: 3.93.8
High danger: 79
Chances: 1715
Shots: 3543

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal43

17Scoring chances15

7High-danger chances9

3.85Expected goals3.85

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–16	4–6	2–3	1.1–1.4
2nd	14–14	11–5	4–4	2.0–1.4
3rd	11–13	2–4	1–2	0.7–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	2	12:20 of the 3rd	7:40	7:40	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 43
Saves: 37
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.85
GSAx: -2.15

Arvid Holm

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 32
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.85
GSAx: +0.85

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:26Peter Holland (0–1)high · 8 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 16:42Cal Burke (0–2)high · 6 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 18:05Antonio Stranges (1–2)medium · 16 ft · beat Arvid Holm
2nd 5:20Penalty
2nd 6:20Kyle McDonald (2–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Arvid Holm
2nd 10:27Jack Ahcan (2–3)low · 16 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 10:45Penalty
2nd 12:56Penalty
2nd 15:34Penalty
2nd 16:31Kyle McDonald (3–3)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Arvid Holm
2nd 19:05Penalty
3rd 1:06Brad Hunt (3–4)low · 36 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 12:20Ondrej Pavel (3–5)medium · 9 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 17:55Jack Ahcan (3–6)empty net · low · 159 ft · beat Rémi Poirier