Tucson Roadrunners at Henderson Silver Knights

The Dollar Loan Center · Henderson, NV

Tucson Roadrunners

3:2

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

TUCHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

64%36%

xG: 3.52.7
High danger: 95
Chances: 1312
Shots: 3330

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal30

13Scoring chances12

9High-danger chances5

3.45Expected goals2.68

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–11	6–4	3–2	1.6–1.0
2nd	13–8	5–4	4–2	1.4–0.8
3rd	4–11	2–4	2–1	0.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jiří Patera

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 30
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.45
GSAx: +0.45

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.68
GSAx: +0.68

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:49Penalty
1st 11:04Max Szuber (1–0)medium · tip · 6 ft · beat Jiří Patera
2nd 2:37Travis Barron (2–0)low · slap · 34 ft · beat Jiří Patera
2nd 7:33Brendan Brisson (2–1)medium · slap · 25 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 7:48Penalty
2nd 18:15Penalty
2nd 19:39Grigori Denisenko (2–2)5v4 · low · slap · 61 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 7:51Josh Doan (3–2)high · wrist · 8 ft · beat Jiří Patera
3rd 11:00Penalty
3rd 12:34Penalty
3rd 14:36Penalty
3rd 18:22Penalty