Providence Bruins at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Providence Bruins

2:1

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

PROBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 2.92.6
High danger: 32
Chances: 109
Shots: 3236

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal36

10Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances2

2.88Expected goals2.58

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–12	5–2	2–1	1.2–0.7
2nd	8–14	1–5	0–1	0.6–1.2
3rd	12–10	4–2	1–0	1.1–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 35
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.58
GSAx: +1.58

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.88
GSAx: +0.88

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:54John Farinacci (1–0)low · 16 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 7:17Penalty
1st 11:26Penalty
1st 13:18Karson Kuhlman (1–1)5v4 · low · 42 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 3:58Penalty
2nd 7:25Penalty
3rd 6:42Penalty
3rd 9:29Penalty
3rd 10:18Fabian Lysell (2–1)5v4 · medium · 28 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 17:55Penalty